PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93.1%+0.5pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 8.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
1
7d Change
-18.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 4:31 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Afghanistan (including the Taliban) sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that constitutes an agreement between the two countries explicitly involving Afghan minerals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Any formal written agreement between the United States and Afghanistan that explicitly involves Afghan minerals will qualify, regardless of its scope, substance, duration, legal form, or significance.
- This includes narrow, technical, procedural, temporary, partial, single-issue, and non-binding agreements.
- Qualifying subject matter includes but is not limited to partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Afghan minerals.
- Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Afghanistan.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026? resolve?
- Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Afghanistan (including the Taliban) sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that constitutes an agreement between the two countries explicitly involving Afghan minerals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.