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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Middle East
  3. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

0.4% (24h)One-OffMiddle East3d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 1%
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$1.4M

Liquidity

$519.9K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.5% / 0.6%

Spread

20.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-2.9%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

May 26, 26, 5:16 AMJun 15, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes1%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
  • Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
  • Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.