PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
November 13, 2026 89%+14.0pt
Market quality
17 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$206.6
Liquidity
$387.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 93.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+13.5 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 22, 26, 4:00 PMMar 14, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC.
- This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
- State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
Open markets
Politics
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- Ed Markey+0.9pt100%
- Seth Moulton-0.7pt0%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4M
- 24h Vol
- $2.3M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt17.2%
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.3pt39%
- Renan Santos+0.7pt3%
+16 more outcomes
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- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- December 31-0.2pt61%
- October 31+1.5pt39%
- September 30-1.0pt20%
+17 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Seltzers with 5mg THC legal on??
- Polymarket prices November 13, 2026 at 89% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Seltzers with 5mg THC legal on? resolve?
- Seltzers with 5mg THC legal on? is scheduled to resolve on March 14, 2027.
- How is Seltzers with 5mg THC legal on? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC.