This market resolved: September 21
Resolved: Sep 21, 2026, 6:20 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
September 21
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
20%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 22, 2026, 4:22 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
September 195%
September 250%
No release by September 3019%
September 170%
September 280%
September 2219%
September 21100%
September 230%
September 240%
September 270%
September 290%
September 300%
September 21Won
On or prior to September 9Lost
September 10Lost
September 11Lost
September 12Lost
September 13Lost
September 14Lost
September 15Lost
September 16Lost
September 17Lost
September 18Lost
September 19Lost
September 20Lost
September 22Lost
September 23Lost
September 24Lost
September 25Lost
September 26Lost
September 27Lost
September 28Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessRules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
