Current implied probability
1440+ 59%+1.5ptLeader of 4 outcomes
1440+ 59%+1.5ptMarket quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$40
Liquidity
$843.9
Low liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 8:15 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.