Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 3:01 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpen Source market share on Sep 10th
KalshiRules
It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.
- Will the feared come to pass? Will the weights of a model with Mythos-level exploitation abilities (such that anyone with an abliteration tool and a GPU cluster can use them to hack into 2025-era software) be released to the public before the end of 2027?
- (simply scoring high on cyber benchmarks doesn't count; the models must be good at exploiting vulnerabilities in realistic settings to the point where we have stories of the model producing root-granting binaries and such)
- (if the capabilities are latent in the weights but are obfuscated by refusals or surface-level unlearning, then this still resolves YES, although I'd want to wait to see if someone actually elicits them)
- (if the capabilities aren't in the weights (like by gradient routing) but they are present in a private API version of the model, then this resolves NO)
- Update 2026-08-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The model must achieve scores close to or higher than Mythos 5 on both ExploitBench and ExploitGym.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? resolve?
- Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.