Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75.1%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 3:01 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
PolymarketRules
It seems that OpenAI has acquired The Sauce, letting them make models that are cracked at not only finding vulnerabilities, but at exploiting them, too.
- Will the feared come to pass? Will the weights of a model with Mythos-level exploitation abilities (such that anyone with an abliteration tool and a GPU cluster can use them to hack into 2025-era software) be released to the public before the end of 2027?
- (simply scoring high on cyber benchmarks doesn't count; the models must be good at exploiting vulnerabilities in realistic settings to the point where we have stories of the model producing root-granting binaries and such)
- (if the capabilities are latent in the weights but are obfuscated by refusals or surface-level unlearning, then this still resolves YES, although I'd want to wait to see if someone actually elicits them)
- (if the capabilities aren't in the weights (like by gradient routing) but they are present in a private API version of the model, then this resolves NO)
- Update 2026-08-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The model must achieve scores close to or higher than Mythos 5 on both ExploitBench and ExploitGym.
