Selected book midpoint
November 30 · —
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Stored reference
November 30 69%
November 30 69%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$150.7
Liquidity
$685.7
Low liquidityOpen interest
$448
Bid / Ask
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November 30Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:44 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
October 31Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · November 30
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released on?
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PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
LimitlessWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
