Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffAI1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 86.4%
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1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 9, 26, 3:02 AM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The current SOTA model was released without safety evals is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
