Current community forecast
Custom ASIC 62.9%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 26, 2:38 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
The ratio of compute (per FLOP) used for the flagship language models of the 10 leading companies/organizations at market close.
- Sources: company/lab announcements, consensus reporting
- (Hopefully) forward-compatible definitions:
- GPU: a general-purpose CPU specialized to handle embarassingly parallel workload tasks
- FPGA: an ASIC that implements logic gates through a reprogrammable medium (currently, LUTs and routing fabric), meaning the logic can be cost-effectively modified after finishing manufacturing, at a price at least one OOM less than manufacturing a new one.
- ASIC (excluding FPGAs): a non-reprogrammable IC that directly implements logic that would normally be handled at the programming-language layer in a CPU directly in the digital logic.