PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Nov 14, 2026, 3:48 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 14, 2026, 3:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
13, 10:00 PM56%
14, 12:00 AM71%
14, 12:00 PM90%
15, 12:00 AM97%
13, 6:00 PM1%
13, 7:00 PM8%
13, 8:00 PM0%
13, 10:00 PMWon
13, 10:30 PMWon
13, 11:00 PMWon
13, 9:00 PMWon
14, 12:00 AMWon
14, 12:00 PMWon
14, 1:00 AMWon
14, 2:00 AMWon
14, 4:00 AMWon
14, 6:00 AMWon
15, 12:00 AMWon
13, 6:00 PMLost
13, 7:00 PMLost
13, 8:00 PMLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketWill the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketWill the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The FAA issued a nationwide ground stop for flights departing U.S. airports on November 13, 2026 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/13/us/faa-nationwide-ground-stop).
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, or their authorized representatives officially announce that this nationwide ground stop is no longer in effect between market creation and the listed date and time (inclusive of the listed minute).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A qualifying announcement must communicate that the nationwide (all-airports) ground stop is cancelled or otherwise no longer in effect, including where it is replaced by narrower ground stops or other traffic management initiatives at individual airports or regions.
- Announcements that the ground stop is lifted for, or does not affect, specific airports, regions, or flights while the nationwide ground stop remains in effect will not count.
- An announcement that the ground stop will end at a future time will not qualify until its effective time.
