Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

FedOne-OffRegulation Bonds & Treasuries Corporate Actions6mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 14%

Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$1.6K

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

10.0% / 19.0%

Spread

90.0%

Wide spread

7d Change

+0.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Nov 12, 25, 11:33 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S.
Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.

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Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

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Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

FedOne-OffRegulation Bonds & Treasuries Corporate Actions6mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 14%

Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

Liquidity

$1.6K

Low liquidity

Bid / Ask

10.0% / 19.0%

Spread

90.0%

Wide spread

7d Change

+0.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Nov 12, 25, 11:33 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S.
Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.

Related Markets

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

Yes: 15%

KALSHI

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Exactly 1.50%: 0%

KALSHI

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

2.6-2.8%: 51%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

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