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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

FedOne-OffRegulationBonds & TreasuriesCorporate Actions6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 14%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$1.7K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

10.0% / 19.0%

Spread

90.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.5%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Nov 12, 25, 11:33 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
  • -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S.
  • Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
  • An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
  • -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S.
  • Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
  • An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.