PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 11%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 15.0%
Spread
114.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 11:23 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes11%
Volume trend
$62Jul 146d of dataJul 24
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
- -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S.
- Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
- An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.