PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$833.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 8.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 11:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
- -Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility -Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank -A U.S. Treasury capital injection -A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
- An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
- Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? resolve?
- Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.