Largest Democratic Margin of Victory
Politics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: California Proposition 50
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
California Proposition 50 86.2%+0.8ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
5 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleOct 6, 25, 4:25 PMNov 4, 25, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
California Proposition 50100%
Virginia House of Delegates16%
Virginia Governor0%
New Jersey Governor0%
New York City Mayor0%
13.8%
86.2%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the election or referendum won by Democrats with the highest margin of victory compared to the other listed events, all scheduled for November 4, 2025:
- - the named outcome election - the named outcome election - the named outcome election - the named outcome election - California referendum “Proposition 50”
- If the results of any of these elections are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will be resolved according to the results published thus far.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official election authority sources conducting the election.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $193.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-1.0pt58.7%
- Ralph Norman33%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt76%
- October 31+7.5pt60%
- September 30+5.0pt41%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.9%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.1%
- Total Vol
- $24.6M
- 24h Vol
- $546.4K
- Next French Presidential Election
- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Ohio Governor winner?
- Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Largest Democratic Margin of Victory?
- Polymarket prices California Proposition 50 at 86% as of April 24, 2026.
- When does Largest Democratic Margin of Victory resolve?
- Largest Democratic Margin of Victory is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2025.
- How is Largest Democratic Margin of Victory settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the election or referendum won by Democrats with the highest margin of victory compared to the other listed events, all scheduled for November 4, 2025: