PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, 11:34 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
100%
ConsensusCurrent implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
23 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 60 days ago
StaleMar 3, 26, 11:18 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
No100%
Yes0%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
- A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
- The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified.
- A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
