PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93.1%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.1
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 10:03 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japanese government declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, only information from the national Government of Japan will qualify.
- Information from individual prefectures or municipalities will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
- Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.
- The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- September 302%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $65.3M
- 24h Vol
- $78K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt23%
- Before 2028-1.0pt17%
- Before 20276%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.6M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-3.0pt76.8%
- 2+1.0pt21.2%
- 32%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKET10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- No-0.1pt99%
- Yes+0.1pt1%
- Total Vol
- $807.6K
- 24h Vol
- $2.8K
KALSHIHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 0+13.0pt38%
- Above 1+2.0pt26%
- Above 2-4.0pt10%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
- 1+11.0pt72.3%
- 2-5.5pt20.8%
- 3-2.1pt5%
+4 more outcomes
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?
- How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? resolve?
- Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japanese government declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.