How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 21?
6.5 pts (24h)Middle EastOne-OffTrade Policy2d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
170-189 45.9%-6.5ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$325.1
Liquidity
$10.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 6:24 PM UTCSep 27, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 21, 2026, through September 27, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
- If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
- In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.