How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
41.0% (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection4mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability2 46%-41.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.8K
Liquidity
$50.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
45.0% / 46.0%
Spread
2.2%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 9:24 PMNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
246%
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
- A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
- A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.