PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
8–9% 27.9%+0.5ptLeader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$32K
High liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 6:26 PM UTCNov 7, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
- This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
- In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
- In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
US Politics
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt61.8%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.4%
- Republicans sweep8.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $69.9M
- 24h Vol
- $620.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $707.4M
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $68.4M
- 24h Vol
- $602K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Alaska Senate Election Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GOP Black vote share??
- Polymarket prices 8–9% at 27.9% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does GOP Black vote share? resolve?
- GOP Black vote share? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2026.
- How is GOP Black vote share? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Where else is GOP Black vote share? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.