KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 8% 82%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$8.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 16, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 6, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Rules
If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.
- The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time.
- If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.
- If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt61.8%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.4%
- Republicans sweep8.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $69.9M
- 24h Vol
- $620.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $707.4M
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $68.4M
- 24h Vol
- $602K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Alaska Senate Election Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Midterms: Republican share of Black vote??
- Kalshi prices Above 8% at 82% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? resolve?
- Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2026.
- How is Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.