PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
6.1 or more · —
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Stored reference
6.1 or more 89.9%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
6.1 or more 89.9%Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$1K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$924.5
Bid / Ask
— / —
6.1 or moreSpread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 16, 26, 4:07 AM UTCOct 17, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · 6.1 or more
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 16, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
- Brackets: the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 16, 2026.
- An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
- Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 16, 2026? · Magnitude of at least 6.6 99%