Current implied probability
Grüne 45.9%+4.5ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$39.7K
High liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:14 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election: 6th Place
PolymarketSweden Riksdag election: 7th place (vote share)
KalshiWhich party will win the 2026 Berlin state election?
FutuurSwedish Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
KalshiRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
- If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election.
- If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher.
- If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Berlin State Election: 4th Place?
- Polymarket prices Grüne at 46% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Berlin State Election: 4th Place resolve?
- Berlin State Election: 4th Place is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Berlin State Election: 4th Place settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- Where else is Berlin State Election: 4th Place listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.