PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityJay Feely 85%+0.5%Leader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$76.6
Liquidity
$205.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 15.6%
Spread
4.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
-2.1%
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Nov 25, 25, 10:24 PMJul 21, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Jay Feely85%
Also available on Kalshi
AZ-01 Republican nominee?
4.0%4mo
-4.0%82%
-1.0%11%
0%
+5 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$41.5K
24h Vol$3.2K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Republican primary will take place on July 21, 2026.
- If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
- Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S.
- House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
- The Republican primary will take place on July 21, 2026.
- If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
- Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.