PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
October 31 · —
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Stored reference
October 31 9%Leader of 3 outcomes
October 31 9%Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$121.9
Liquidity
$10.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$1.2K
Bid / Ask
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October 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 12:32 AM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · October 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
PolymarketWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia?
KalshiKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata.
- Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
- An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.