Current implied probability
Friedrich Merz 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
21 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
29,589
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 27, 25, 3:52 PMFeb 22, 25, 5:00 PM
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
With the upcoming election to the 21st German Bundestag on February 23, 2025, who will emerge as the next Chancellor of Germany? Market resolves on February 22, 2025, at 17:00 UTC.
- In the case of a coalition, there will still be a single person serving the role of Chancellor and the market will resolve as such.
- If significant changes to the election process occur or if the election is postponed, the market may be canceled.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
- Darline Graham, 3-6%+82.0pt85.3%
- Darline Graham, 6-9%-12.0pt0.9%
- Darline Graham, 9-12%-8.0pt0.9%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+7.5pt77%
- October 31+13.5pt60%
- September 30+11.0pt41%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt18.6%
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.6%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.8%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+4.0pt86%
- Yes-4.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.2%
- Republican Party14.8%
- Total Vol
- $25.1M
- 24h Vol
- $555.5K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt21%
- Jon Ossoff15%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Brazil Presidential Election
- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next Chancellor for Germany??
- Myriad prices Friedrich Merz at 100% as of August 26, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next Chancellor for Germany? resolve?
- Who will be the next Chancellor for Germany? is scheduled to resolve on February 22, 2025.
- How is Who will be the next Chancellor for Germany? settled?
- Myriad settles this market as follows: With the upcoming election to the 21st German Bundestag on February 23, 2025, who will emerge as the next Chancellor of Germany? Market resolves on February 22, 2025, at 17:00 UTC.