Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 29, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 98.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 days ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 10:53 AMJul 29, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
98.6%
1.4%
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.2pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.1M
- 24h Vol
- $27.2K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt23%
- Before 2028-1.0pt16%
- Before 2027-0.1pt5%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.9M
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 176.2%
- 2+1.0pt19.8%
- 3+0.1pt2%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Total Vol
- $446.3K
- 24h Vol
- $3K
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No92%
- Yes-3.2pt8%
- Total Vol
- $771.4K
- 24h Vol
- $2.3K
KALSHIWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- United States-5.1pt53%
- China-3.6pt31%
- India+0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $155.4K
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- Will Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?
- Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of July 29, 2026.
- When does Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal? resolve?
- Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal? is scheduled to resolve on July 29, 2026.