Current community forecast
Yes 90.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 18, 26, 5:42 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
- It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
- For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
- The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
- According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? resolve?
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria