Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87.6% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? resolve?

Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.

How is Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.

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