Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.9%
Forecasters
57
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 29, 22, 3:45 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything be found this century?
Manifold MarketsWill the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything
- In order for a theory to qualify, it has to have been extensivly tested and have a strong consensus in its favor.
- It also must explain everything fundamental that is in principle explainable.
- (It doesn't have to answer philosophical questions like "why is there something rather than nothing", since that may not be answerable.) In other words, there shouldn't be any physics question where we would not know how to compute an answer.
- (Even if the computation itself would take a very long time.)
- There will of course be many emergent phenomena that we still don't have good models for.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? resolve?
- Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will we have the Theory of Everything by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything