Current community forecast
Yes 51.6%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 10, 24, 12:47 PM UTCMar 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created before one million humanoid robots have been manufactured.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
