Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 84.8%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 24, 7:45 PM UTCMar 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 50K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill 2M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves as YES if at least 200 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2031.
- Different number of robots:
- @/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e5827a19aecb
- @/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-8b5c5fb5bd63
- @/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-9dad526dc238
- @/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-dfdcca40f9e1
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031? resolve?
- Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2031.
- How is Will 200K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if at least 200 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2031.