Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 75%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 23, 11:35 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Last doubling took 44yrs ;(
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $366K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.4K
- 24h Vol
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US recession by end of 2026?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US real GDP pc double by 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will US real GDP pc double by 2040? resolve?
- Will US real GDP pc double by 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is Will US real GDP pc double by 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Last doubling took 44yrs ;(