Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 7:02 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 71.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Feb 24, 25, 6:16 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 5:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump nominate Peter Thiel to serve on the Supreme Court of the United States during Trump II?
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KalshiIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
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KalshiRules
I'll have to use my own judgement, but to clarify what I mean by "bizarre", I'm talking about someone like Matt Gaetz or Kash Patel - lacking experience, publicly flaunts the law, that sort of thing.
- The idea of this market is to determine whether Trump will try to appoint someone beyond the norm.
- Therefore, if they are "merely" as controversial as a sitting justice, that would be a NO.
- A nominee would not resolve YES on the basis of ideological extremism unless they were substantially further right than Thomas and Alito, and they would not resolve YES on the basis of potential crimes unless the accusations were more credible than those against Kavanaugh.
- Examples of what would be a clear YES would be Judge Judy or Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- To give you an idea of where "the line" is: I would say Ted Cruz is probably the craziest example I could give that would still resolve NO.
