Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.1%
Forecasters
366
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 25, 7:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Will Donald Trump die of natural causes or other causes in 2026?
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies from any cause (natural or otherwise) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC, NPR, etc.) reporting his death.
- This market resolves NO if Trump survives through December 31, 2026.
- Trump is 79 years old and the oldest person in American history to be inaugurated as president.
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
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+16 more outcomes
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump Die in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump Die in 2026? resolve?
- Will Trump Die in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Trump Die in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Donald Trump die of natural causes or other causes in 2026?