Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
375
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 25, 7:45 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Will Donald Trump die of natural causes or other causes in 2026?
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies from any cause (natural or otherwise) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC, NPR, etc.) reporting his death.
- This market resolves NO if Trump survives through December 31, 2026.
- Trump is 79 years old and the oldest person in American history to be inaugurated as president.