Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 11:38 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
PolymarketWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Trump Die in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump are confirmed by consensus of credible reporting to be deceased by 11:59pm ET, December 31st 2026.
- Resolves YES if both die.
- Resolves NO if neither do.
Open markets
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
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+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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- IA-01 House winner?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? resolve?
- Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump are confirmed by consensus of credible reporting to be deceased by 11:59pm ET, December 31st 2026.