Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.3%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 23, 1:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.
- Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts.
- Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).
