Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 55%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 40 minutes ago
Oct 27, 24, 7:16 AM UTCDec 31, 00, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If this question is resolve as “No” but you vote “No” what would the answer then?
- But if this question resolve as “Yes” but then it will be “No”?
- Is this a paradox?
- I don’t know, which is why I’m making a manifold question to see how the internet collectively solve this paradox, feel free to suggest the answer, but I already have one in my mind…
Open markets
Science
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- September 30-0.2pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.2M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-2.2pt73%
- No27%
- Total Vol
- $348K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt39%
- Above 1+4.0pt18%
- Above 2-2.0pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will this question be resolved as “No”??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will this question be resolved as “No”? resolve?
- Will this question be resolved as “No”? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 3000.
- How is Will this question be resolved as “No”? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If this question is resolve as “No” but you vote “No” what would the answer then?