KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2027 82%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$230.9
Liquidity
$230.9
Low liquiditySpread
26.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 7, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture true?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2027 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostThe Economistthe Clay Mathematics Institutethe New York TimesBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street Journalthe American Mathematical Societythe International Mathematical UnionThe Guardianthe Associated PressReuters
- For purposes of this Contract, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time:
- A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals.
- A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Clay Mathematics Institute, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work.
- At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, as having been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work, and no Source Agency has, prior to the Expiration time, published reporting that such written work has been formally retracted by its author(s) or by any publishing journal, has been formally withdrawn or repudiated by its author(s), or contains an identified error that has not been publicly corrected or addressed by the author(s) in a subsequent publication or amendment.
- If Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2028 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved??
- Kalshi prices Before 2027 at 82% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved? resolve?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2027.
- How is When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2027 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.