Will there be significant and successful effort to ban Kalshi & Polymarket in the USA before 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffRegulationExchangeUS Politics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 4, 26, 6:30 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If both become illegal but you can still very easily bet on them through VPNs if you pretend you're from a random country where there are no regulations, that still resolves YES.
- Before 2030 = before 01/01/2030 midnight UTC.
- If ANY US citizen can bet on BOTH these platforms without using a VPN and whilst being located IN the US, this resolves NO.
- Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve NO, any US citizen permitted to bet on both platforms must not need to meet criteria other than a reasonable age limit.
- Special status (such as being in Congress) or extraordinary hoops will not satisfy the criteria for a NO resolution.
- Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If real money trading is replaced by play money that is convertible to real money in a roundabout way:
