Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029?

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in September?

• 25 bps increase+10.0pt63.4%
• No change-9.0pt35.6%
• 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$112.2M

24h Vol

$6.3M

KALSHI

Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 2.5%99%
• Above 2.6%99%
• Above 2.7%99%

+23 more outcomes

Total Vol

$772.5K

24h Vol

$109.2K

KALSHI

CPI in August

• Above -0.1%99%
• Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
• Above -0.3%99%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$449.8K

24h Vol

$31.7K

KALSHI

United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026

• Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
• Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
• Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%

+4 more outcomes

Total Vol

KALSHI

CPI core in August

• Above 0.0%99%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
• Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%

+8 more outcomes

Total Vol

$34.1K

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026

• Soft landing-5.7pt49.5%
• Overheating+13.7pt45.8%
• Stagflation-2.6pt2.8%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$94.6K

• Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
• Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
• US government budget balance in 2026
• US real GDP growth in 2034?
• China unemployment rate in August
• GDP growth in 2026
• Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
• Recession this year?
• Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
• China’s government budget balance in 2026
• Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
• Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.8% in October 2026? (Jobless) (Jobs) (Labor market) (Layoffs) (Economy)?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 10, 2026.

When does Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029? resolve?

Will there be a worldwide recession before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.