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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 65.1%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 2, 22, 8:26 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2100?
Manifold MarketsNorthern Ireland Assembly election winner?
KalshiRules
This question resolves to yes once a polling date is announced and that poll is seen as legitimate by the Irish Times and the Times of London newspapers.
