Will the wild population of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become Extinct by 2100?
One-OffScienceManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 81.5%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleApr 24, 26, 11:49 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market focuses on the extinction risk of the wild population of the North Atlantic Right Whale.
- The species is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020).
- As of 2025 the wild population counted about 380 individuals, and there were no captive individuals.
- The market will resolve YES, if the species is declared Extinct in the Wild or Extinct by the IUCN by 2100, or earlier.
- It will also resolve YES, if there is other strong evidence in 2100 that the wild population is extinct.
- The market will resolve NO, if there is strong evidence in 2100, that the wild population of the species persists.