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Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics Regulation1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 67.2%

Forecasters

12

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Stale

Feb 9, 26, 10:48 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the White House makes an official public announcement stating that ICE deportations have exceeded 1 million by December 31, 2027.
The announcement must come from official White House communications (press releases, statements from the President, DHS Secretary, or other authorized administration officials) and be verifiable through official government sources such as whitehouse.gov or dhs.gov.
For resolution purposes, "deportations" refers to formal removals as reported by the Department of Homeland Security's Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), consistent with how the administration has publicly reported these figures.
The market resolves NO if no such announcement is made by EOY 2027, or if official figures show cumulative deportations remain at or below 1 million.
The Department of Homeland Security's FY 2026 budget justification requests funding increases "to support the Administration's strategy of 1,000,000 removals per year." As of January 2026, the Trump administration reported nearly 3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S., including an estimated 2.2 million self-deportations and more than 675,000 deportations.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027?: Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027 resolve?: Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
How is Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027 settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria

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