Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffAITrade PolicyCommodities2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 26, 6:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if the U.S. Department of Commerce publishes an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium imports from Russia (HTS 7110.21.0000) in the Federal Register by December 31, 2026.
- Background: On February 10, 2026, Commerce announced a preliminary antidumping determination with a 132.83% margin for the Russia-wide entity.
- For a final duty order to be issued, BOTH of the following must occur:
- Commerce final affirmative determination (expected ~April 28, 2026)
- USITC final affirmative injury determination (expected ~June-September 2026)
- ✅ Feb 10, 2026: Preliminary AD determination (132.83% rate)
