Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffTrade PolicyAI1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.8%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Feb 16, 26, 5:48 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 5:48 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.
- Background: This is the final step - requires BOTH:
- Commerce final affirmative AD determination
- USITC final affirmative injury determination
- Once issued, the order imposes cash deposit requirements on all imports at the determined AD rate (currently 132.83% preliminary for Russia-wide entity).
- Impact: A duty order would effectively shut down Russian palladium imports to the U.S., forcing importers to shift to South African, Canadian, or recycled sources.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026.