Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?
One-OffCommoditiesTrade Policy5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 26, 9:02 PM UTCFeb 19, 27, 9:02 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
KalshiWill Colorado home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
KalshiWill California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
KalshiWill Glencore's Congo deal result in a 2% increase in global copper supply by July 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if the spot price of palladium increases by more than 5% from its January 12, 2026 level of $1,939/oz by December 31, 2026, as a result of U.S. antidumping duties on Russian palladium.
- The authoritative data source for resolution will be the spot price data from reputable financial market data providers such as Bloomberg or Reuters.
- The U.S. antidumping duties, targeting Nornickel's significant share of global supply, could disrupt supply chains and elevate prices, making this threshold significant.
- The market will consider the impact of these duties as the primary driver for any price increase.
- Other unrelated market factors will not be considered in the resolution.
- Source: Article
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↑ $95+14.9pt100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $276.7K
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Above $91.49+13.0pt99%
- Above $89.99+5.0pt99%
- Above $88.99+7.0pt99%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1800+59.0pt99%
- Above 4.1400+32.0pt99%
- Above 4.2000+73.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-13.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-9.0pt32%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIBrent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $9499%
- Above $96.5097%
- Above $9696%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.5K
- 24h Vol
- $99.4K
POLYMARKETCrude Oil all time high by which date?
- December 3111%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- May 31-0.4pt0%
+1 more outcomes
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- Copper price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- Brent crude oil price on September 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Diesel prices this week
- Gas prices in the US in Sep 2026?
- What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on February 19, 2027.
- How is Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the spot price of palladium increases by more than 5% from its January 12, 2026 level of $1,939/oz by December 31, 2026, as a result of U.S. antidumping duties on Russian palladium.