Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?
One-OffCommoditiesTrade Policy3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 26, 9:02 PM UTCFeb 19, 27, 9:02 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if the spot price of palladium increases by more than 5% from its January 12, 2026 level of $1,939/oz by December 31, 2026, as a result of U.S. antidumping duties on Russian palladium.
- The authoritative data source for resolution will be the spot price data from reputable financial market data providers such as Bloomberg or Reuters.
- The U.S. antidumping duties, targeting Nornickel's significant share of global supply, could disrupt supply chains and elevate prices, making this threshold significant.
- The market will consider the impact of these duties as the primary driver for any price increase.
- Other unrelated market factors will not be considered in the resolution.
- Source: Article
