Current community forecast
The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60 92.2%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
67
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 26, 9:17 PM UTCFeb 14, 29, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Freddie deBoer's proposed a bet with Scott Alexander, predicting that all of these 17 conditions will be true: I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects Over the Next Three Years.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60 at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029? resolve?
- Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029? is scheduled to resolve on February 14, 2029.
- How is Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Freddie deBoer's proposed a bet with Scott Alexander, predicting that all of these 17 conditions will be true: I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects Over the Next Three Years.