Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029??

Manifold Markets prices The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60 at 92.2% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029? resolve?

Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029? is scheduled to resolve on February 14, 2029.

How is Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Freddie deBoer's proposed a bet with Scott Alexander, predicting that all of these 17 conditions will be true: I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects Over the Next Three Years.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+3.0pt94.1%
• 25 bps increase-2.0pt5.9%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$62.2M

24h Vol

$1.4M

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes-2.5pt75%
• No+2.5pt25%

Total Vol

$1.1M

24h Vol

$49.2K

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

• 5.3%-4.0pt39%
• 5.4%-6.5pt23%
• 5.5%-2.8pt11%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

• Hike–Pause–Hike+1.0pt73%
• Hike–Pause–Pause+2.5pt23%
• Hike–Hike–Hike-4.0pt2%

+6 more outcomes

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above 0.0%98.5%
• Above -0.1%98.5%
• Above 0.1%+1.0pt89.5%

POLYMARKET

US economic state at the end of 2026?

• Overheating+11.0pt88.2%
• Soft Landing-8.0pt9.8%
• Slack-0.1pt1%

+1 more outcomes

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