Current community forecast
2032 86.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 25, 11:27 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The Remote Labor Index (RLI) is a benchmark of 240 long-horizon remote labor tasks, collected as a representative sample of fully-remote labor performed by freelancers.
- Tasks in the dataset take human professionals between several hours to several hundred hours (see figures from the paper below).
- Though most of the benchmark is private, the creators will occasionally report model performance on the benchmark as evaluated by themselves and/or model providers.
- At the end of each listed year, I will resolve to the highest reported RLI automation rate (fraction of tasks completed) of an AI model that year.
- The current best evaluated model as of October 2025 is Manus, at a 2.5% automation rate.
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