Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.6%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 11, 23, 10:19 PM UTCJan 1, 34, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States no longer be a democracy within 5 years?
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ForecastExUnited States vs. Peru
PolymarketRules
As defined by Freedom House rating the US as "not free" at any point between now and 2033. 39% of Americans believe this will happen.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt65.7%
- No change-1.0pt32.4%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.6pt91.1%
- Republican Party+0.1pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $37M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.9pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.1pt14%
+50 more outcomes
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?
- Ballroom99%
- Melania99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $789.1K
- 24h Vol
- $788.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Democratic Party-4.0pt60.4%
- Republican Party+4.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
- 24h Vol
- $652.4K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- March 3179%
- December 31-0.2pt62%
- November 3047%
+20 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Maine Senate Election Winner
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- New Hampshire Senate winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
- California Governor winner? (Person)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States no longer be a Democracy in the next ten years??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71.6% as of September 24, 2026.
- When does Will the United States no longer be a Democracy in the next ten years? resolve?
- Will the United States no longer be a Democracy in the next ten years? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2034.
- How is Will the United States no longer be a Democracy in the next ten years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As defined by Freedom House rating the US as "not free" at any point between now and 2033. 39% of Americans believe this will happen.