Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.4%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 7:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
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PolymarketRules
Parent market: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-trump-wins-the-nobel-peace-pri
- For this market to resolve YES, the parent market must reach 10% or higher at any point after January 19th and before it resolves.
- If the parent market resolves at 10% or higher, that also counts.
- Otherwise, this market resolves NO.