Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 29.8%-1.1ptLeader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
24
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+24.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Oct 3, 26, 6:53 PM UTCOct 9, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
KalshiWill the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?
Manifold Markets🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsTrump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market.
- It will follow their resolution.
- To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).
- Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).
- "Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).
- The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%—since there are some options covered by "Other").
