Will the Trump administration attempt to restrict trans people from buying guns?
US PoliticsOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.6%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 26, 1:56 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
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Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Rhetoric or threats alone do not count
- Any actual legislation that would make it harder for trans people to purchase firearms will resolve YES, regardless of whether it has a real effect or holds up in court
- Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Executive Orders (EOs) count as an attempt by the administration and would resolve YES
- ATF form changes (e.g. changes to form 4473) are less clear-cut; resolution may depend on whether there is a de facto change in access and/or whether the administration supports prosecutions or purchase denials based on trans status
- Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - ATF actions (e.g. changes to form 4473) may count if there is collaboration with or broader support from the Trump administration
- De facto access change or administration support for prosecutions/purchase denials will be considered in ambiguous ATF cases
